economy

Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$9,642 Open Interest$2,896
YES
20¢
Implied probability: 20.5%
NO
79¢
Implied probability: 79.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 20¢ · High 20¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
20¢
NO Price
79¢
Total Volume
$9,642
Open Interest
$2,896
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
233
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements o

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 20¢ means the market is pricing in a 20.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,642) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,896) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements o

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 233 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 20¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 80¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 20¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 20.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,642 in total traded volume and $2,896 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-05-12. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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