politics

Will Democrats win exactly 48 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-11-03 Volume$9,689 Open Interest$988
YES
64¢
Implied probability: 64.0%
NO
36¢
Implied probability: 36.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 64¢ · High 64¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
64¢
NO Price
36¢
Total Volume
$9,689
Open Interest
$988
Expiration
2026-11-03
Days Left
60
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election. All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will d

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 64¢ means the market is pricing in a 64.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,689) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($988) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election. All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will d

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-11-03, 60 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 64¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 36¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 64¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 64.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,689 in total traded volume and $988 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-04. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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