politics

Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-05-12 Volume$9,566 Open Interest$6,122
YES
83¢
Implied probability: 83.0%
NO
17¢
Implied probability: 17.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 83¢ · High 83¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
83¢
NO Price
17¢
Total Volume
$9,566
Open Interest
$6,122
Expiration
2026-05-12
Days Left
8
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be offici

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 83¢ means the market is pricing in a 83.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,566) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($6,122) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be offici

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-05-12, 8 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 83¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 17¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 83¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 83.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,566 in total traded volume and $6,122 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-05-04. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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