Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
What resolves this contract
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 38¢ means the market is pricing in a 38.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($994,694) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($223,696) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 13¢ | $9,912,061 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,523,173 |
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 9¢ | $999,896 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-11-07, 902 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 38¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 62¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 38¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 38.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $994,694 in total traded volume and $223,696 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.