Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?
What resolves this contract
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August
Reading the odds on this market
At 33.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 33.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 30 contracts that pay $29.85 if it happens; $10 on NO at 66.5¢ buys about 15.0 that pay $15.04 if it does not.
$9,753 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $245 still riding on the outcome, making it number 127 by volume of the 202 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 33¢ means the market is pricing in a 33.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,753) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($245) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 3 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 33¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 66¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 33¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 33.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,753 in total traded volume and $245 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.