economy

Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-06-30 Volume$9,519 Open Interest$3,894
YES
Implied probability: 1.1%
NO
98¢
Implied probability: 99.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 1¢ · High 1¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
98¢
Total Volume
$9,519
Open Interest
$3,894
Expiration
2026-06-30
Days Left
59
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework: - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 1.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,519) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,894) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework: - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-06-30, 59 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.1% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,519 in total traded volume and $3,894 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-05-02. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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