Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%?
What resolves this contract
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this marke
Reading the odds on this market
At 17.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 17.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 6.
$10 on YES buys about 57 contracts that pay $56.98 if it happens; $10 on NO at 82.5¢ buys about 12.1 that pay $12.13 if it does not.
$9,816 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $622 still riding on the outcome, making it number 101 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 17¢ means the market is pricing in a 17.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,816) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($622) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this marke
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-10, 107 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 17¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 82¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 17¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 17.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,816 in total traded volume and $622 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.