economy

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2027-02-15 Volume$9,582 Open Interest$418
YES
Implied probability: 9.0%
NO
91¢
Implied probability: 91.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 9¢ · High 9¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
91¢
Total Volume
$9,582
Open Interest
$418
Expiration
2027-02-15
Days Left
154
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 9.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,582) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($418) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2027-02-15, 154 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 9¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 91¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 9¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 9.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,582 in total traded volume and $418 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-14. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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