Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 25?
What resolves this contract
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price dat
Reading the odds on this market
At 3.1¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 3.1% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 32.
$10 on YES buys about 323 contracts that pay $322.58 if it happens; $10 on NO at 96.9¢ buys about 10.3 that pay $10.32 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 3.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until September 26, 2026; that works out to about 9813342.4% a year.
$9,915 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $19,704 still riding on the outcome, making it number 56 by volume of the 212 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 3¢ means the market is pricing in a 3.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,915) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($19,704) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 14¢ | $966,950 |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 12¢ | $99,475 |
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? | 26¢ | $99,397 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price dat
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-26, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,915 in total traded volume and $19,704 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.