Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released,
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 96¢ means the market is pricing in a 97.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($95,129) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,447) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,896,485 |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,732,306 |
| Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,555,734 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released,
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 234 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 96¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 3¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 96¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 97.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $95,129 in total traded volume and $3,447 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.