Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.8¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.8% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 67 contracts that pay $67.34 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.2¢ buys about 11.7 that pay $11.74 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 17.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 92 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 89.2% a year.
$966,544 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $197,163 still riding on the outcome, making it number 10 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.8% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($966,544) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($197,163) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 92 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 85¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.8% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $966,544 in total traded volume and $197,163 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.