Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 83¢ means the market is pricing in a 83.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,881) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($7,029) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 15¢ | $9,601,886 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 10¢ | $990,196 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 3¢ | $986,368 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 162 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 83¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 17¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 83¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 83.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,881 in total traded volume and $7,029 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.