economy

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$96,912 Open Interest$48,059
YES
33¢
Implied probability: 33.5%
NO
66¢
Implied probability: 66.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 33¢ · High 33¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
33¢
NO Price
66¢
Total Volume
$96,912
Open Interest
$48,059
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
245
About this market

What resolves this contract

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will su

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 33¢ means the market is pricing in a 33.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($96,912) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($48,059) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will su

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 245 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 33¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 66¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 33¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 33.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $96,912 in total traded volume and $48,059 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-30. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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