Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" colum
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 74¢ means the market is pricing in a 74.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,714) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($3,436) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $993,645 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 5¢ | $982,471 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 1¢ | $977,783 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" colum
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-01, 46 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 74¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 26¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 74¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 74.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,714 in total traded volume and $3,436 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.