Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 4.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,990) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,763) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | 5¢ | $988,297 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | 3¢ | $972,428 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | 1¢ | $963,651 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 187 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,990 in total traded volume and $14,763 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.