Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of cred
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 3¢ means the market is pricing in a 3.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($950,794) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($35,904) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price range on Jun 8, 2026: $71,800 or above | 1¢ | $0 |
| Bitcoin price range on Jun 8, 2026: $53,199.99 or below | 1¢ | $0 |
| Bitcoin price range on Jun 8, 2026: $71,700 to 71,799.99 | 1¢ | $0 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | 99¢ | $9,655,800 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 97¢ | $999,593 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 4¢ | $979,923 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of cred
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 206 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.4% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $950,794 in total traded volume and $35,904 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.