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Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$950,794 Open Interest$35,904
YES
Implied probability: 3.4%
NO
96¢
Implied probability: 96.7%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 3¢ · High 3¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
NO Price
96¢
Total Volume
$950,794
Open Interest
$35,904
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
206
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of cred

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 3.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($950,794) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($35,904) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange

Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.

MarketYESVolume
Bitcoin price range on Jun 8, 2026: $71,800 or above $0
Bitcoin price range on Jun 8, 2026: $53,199.99 or below $0
Bitcoin price range on Jun 8, 2026: $71,700 to 71,799.99 $0
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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of cred

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 206 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 3¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 97¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 3¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 3.4% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $950,794 in total traded volume and $35,904 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-08. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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