Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026
Reading the odds on this market
At 20.8¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 20.8% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 48 contracts that pay $48.19 if it happens; $10 on NO at 79.2¢ buys about 12.6 that pay $12.62 if it does not.
$9,750 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $1,942 still riding on the outcome, making it number 139 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 20¢ means the market is pricing in a 20.8% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,750) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,942) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >86° on Oct 1, 2026: 87° or above | 1¢ | $160,306 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° on Oct 1, 2026: 83° to 84° | 1¢ | $95,977 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 85-86° on Oct 1, 2026: 85° to 86° | 1¢ | $85,097 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-04-01, 182 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 20¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 79¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 20¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 20.8% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,750 in total traded volume and $1,942 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.