S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 70¢ means the market is pricing in a 70.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,603) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($8,249) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,686,275 |
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,654,760 |
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,526,732 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-01. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 70¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 30¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 70¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 70.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,603 in total traded volume and $8,249 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.