SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 91¢ means the market is pricing in a 91.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,510) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($7,090) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 7¢ | $9,985,992 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,973,196 |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,875,670 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-12-31, 596 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 91¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 9¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 91¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 91.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,510 in total traded volume and $7,090 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.