No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 19¢ means the market is pricing in a 19.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,848) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($19,665) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,965,250 |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,788,687 |
| Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,748,778 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-06-30, 48 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 19¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 81¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 19¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 19.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,848 in total traded volume and $19,665 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.