Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 26?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the l
Reading the odds on this market
At 51.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 51.5% chance this happens, roughly 1.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 19 contracts that pay $19.42 if it happens; $10 on NO at 48.5¢ buys about 20.6 that pay $20.62 if it does not.
$9,677 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $187 still riding on the outcome, making it number 137 by volume of the 212 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 51¢ means the market is pricing in a 51.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,677) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($187) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 85-86° on Sep 25, 2026: 85° to 86° | 1¢ | $62,423 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° on Sep 25, 2026: 83° to 84° | 3¢ | $43,890 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 81-82° on Sep 25, 2026: 81° to 82° | 10¢ | $37,249 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 85-86° on Sep 25, 2026: 85° to 86° | 1¢ | $62,423 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° on Sep 25, 2026: 83° to 84° | 3¢ | $43,890 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 81-82° on Sep 25, 2026: 81° to 82° | 10¢ | $37,249 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the l
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-26, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 51¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 48¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 51¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 51.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,677 in total traded volume and $187 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.