Will the S&P 500 be between 7750 and 7774.9999 on Sep 30, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,750 to 7,774.9999
What resolves this contract
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on September 30, 2026 is between 7750-7774.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 5.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 5.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 20.
$10 on YES buys about 200 contracts that pay $200.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 95.0¢ buys about 10.5 that pay $10.53 if it does not.
$1,521 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $1,508 still riding on the outcome, making it number 169 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 5¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1,521) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,508) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on September 30, 2026 is between 7750-7774.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 5¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 5¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1,521 in total traded volume and $1,508 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.