Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Oct 4, 2026: 63° to 64°
What resolves this contract
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 63-64° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 51.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 51.0% chance this happens, roughly 1.0 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 20 contracts that pay $19.61 if it happens; $10 on NO at 49.0¢ buys about 20.4 that pay $20.41 if it does not.
$5,038 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $4,074 still riding on the outcome, making it number 54 by volume of the 97 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 51¢ means the market is pricing in a 51.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($5,038) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,074) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >98° on Oct 3, 2026: 99° or above | 99¢ | $176,958 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 95-96° on Oct 3, 2026: 95° to 96° | 1¢ | $88,022 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <91° on Oct 3, 2026: 90° or below | 1¢ | $84,047 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 63-64° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-05, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 51¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 49¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 51¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 51.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $5,038 in total traded volume and $4,074 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.