Will the maximum temperature be 84-85° on Sep 30, 2026: 84° to 85°
What resolves this contract
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Sep 30, 2026, is between 84-85° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 15.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 15.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 67 contracts that pay $66.67 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.0¢ buys about 11.8 that pay $11.76 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 17.6% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until October 1, 2026; that works out to about 5782186751454331544151261184.0% a year.
$17,395 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $12,006 still riding on the outcome, making it number 37 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 15¢ means the market is pricing in a 15.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($17,395) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($12,006) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be <72° on Sep 30, 2026: 71° or below | 5¢ | $20,139 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Sep 30, 2026: 82° to 83° | 45¢ | $19,794 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 78-79° on Sep 30, 2026: 78° to 79° | 6¢ | $17,910 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Sep 30, 2026, is between 84-85° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-01, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 15¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 85¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 15¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 15.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $17,395 in total traded volume and $12,006 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.