Will the maximum temperature be <64° on Sep 25, 2026: 63° or below
What resolves this contract
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Sep 25, 2026, is less than 64° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 4.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 4.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 25.
$10 on YES buys about 250 contracts that pay $250.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 96.0¢ buys about 10.4 that pay $10.42 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 4.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 2 days until September 26, 2026; that works out to about 171888.7% a year.
$453 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $326 still riding on the outcome, making it number 179 by volume of the 205 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 4.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($453) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($326) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >85° on Sep 24, 2026: 86° or above | 1¢ | $64,852 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Sep 24, 2026: 80° to 81° | 31¢ | $24,587 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <78° on Sep 24, 2026: 77° or below | 18¢ | $23,779 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Sep 25, 2026, is less than 64° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-26, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $453 in total traded volume and $326 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.