Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Oct 2, 2026: 61° to 62°
The NOAA ensemble forecast is compared to the market's implied probability. A positive edge means the model sees the event as more likely than the market does. Historical data; not investment advice.
What resolves this contract
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 2, 2026, is between 61-62° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reading the odds on this market
At 11.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 11.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 9.
$10 on YES buys about 91 contracts that pay $90.91 if it happens; $10 on NO at 89.0¢ buys about 11.2 that pay $11.24 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 12.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 2 days until October 3, 2026; that works out to about 172315278800.7% a year.
$1,121 has traded on it on Kalshi, with $1,041 still riding on the outcome, making it number 206 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 11¢ means the market is pricing in a 11.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1,121) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,041) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >86° on Oct 1, 2026: 87° or above | 1¢ | $160,306 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° on Oct 1, 2026: 83° to 84° | 1¢ | $95,977 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 85-86° on Oct 1, 2026: 85° to 86° | 1¢ | $85,097 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 2, 2026, is between 61-62° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-03, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 11¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 89¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 11¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 11.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1,121 in total traded volume and $1,041 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.
What does the NOAA model say?
The NOAA weather model ensemble estimates a 30.9% probability of YES. The market is pricing in 11.0%. The gap (18.9pp) is the model's implied edge: positive means the model thinks YES is more likely than the market does. This is a research signal, not trading advice.