economy

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-05-14 Volume$9,901 Open Interest$11,088
YES
92¢
Implied probability: 92.0%
NO
Implied probability: 8.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 92¢ · High 92¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
92¢
NO Price
Total Volume
$9,901
Open Interest
$11,088
Expiration
2026-05-14
Days Left
17
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 92¢ means the market is pricing in a 92.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,901) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,088) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-05-14, 17 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 92¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 8¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 92¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 92.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,901 in total traded volume and $11,088 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-27. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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