M25 Santa Margherita di Pula: Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo Carboni
What resolves this contract
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Michalski and Lorenzo Carboni in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Michalski' if Daniel Michalski advances against Lorenzo Carboni. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Carboni' if Lorenzo Carboni advances against Daniel Michalski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If t
Reading the odds on this market
At 97.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 97.5% chance this happens, roughly 39.8 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.25 if it happens; $10 on NO at 2.4¢ buys about 408.2 that pay $408.16 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 2.5% if it wins, with the money locked up for 7 days until October 1, 2026; that works out to about 264.5% a year.
$9,960 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $550 still riding on the outcome, making it number 47 by volume of the 204 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 97¢ means the market is pricing in a 97.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,960) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($550) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | 1¢ | $988,532 |
| Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | 1¢ | $984,529 |
| NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27? | 2¢ | $98,438 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Michalski and Lorenzo Carboni in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Michalski' if Daniel Michalski advances against Lorenzo Carboni. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Carboni' if Lorenzo Carboni advances against Daniel Michalski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If t
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-01, 7 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 97¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 2¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 97¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 97.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,960 in total traded volume and $550 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.