Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 23?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 38¢ means the market is pricing in a 38.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,812) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,877) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 81-82° on Sep 22, 2026: 81° to 82° | 2¢ | $30,697 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >70° on Sep 22, 2026: 71° or above | 1¢ | $30,481 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Sep 22, 2026: 79° to 80° | 17¢ | $28,702 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 81-82° on Sep 22, 2026: 81° to 82° | 2¢ | $30,697 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >70° on Sep 22, 2026: 71° or above | 1¢ | $30,481 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Sep 22, 2026: 79° to 80° | 17¢ | $28,702 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-23, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 38¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 62¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 38¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 38.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,812 in total traded volume and $1,877 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.