Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on September 28?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolutio
Reading the odds on this market
At 93.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 93.5% chance this happens, roughly 14.4 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $10.70 if it happens; $10 on NO at 6.5¢ buys about 153.8 that pay $153.85 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 7.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until September 29, 2026; that works out to about 4505697504965.1% a year.
$9,769 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $1,205 still riding on the outcome, making it number 119 by volume of the 199 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 93¢ means the market is pricing in a 93.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,769) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,205) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >83° on Sep 27, 2026: 84° or above | 99¢ | $106,227 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Sep 27, 2026: 82° to 83° | 1¢ | $41,368 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <65° on Sep 27, 2026: 64° or below | 98¢ | $37,136 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >83° on Sep 27, 2026: 84° or above | 99¢ | $106,227 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Sep 27, 2026: 82° to 83° | 1¢ | $41,368 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <65° on Sep 27, 2026: 64° or below | 98¢ | $37,136 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolutio
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-28, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 93¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 6¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 93¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 93.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,769 in total traded volume and $1,205 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.