Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 37¢ means the market is pricing in a 37.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,789) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,812) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $999,000 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | 6¢ | $998,452 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 70¢ | $993,233 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-08, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 37¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 62¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 37¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 37.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,789 in total traded volume and $1,812 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.