FDA approves argenx's Vyvgart?
What resolves this contract
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is May 10, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a s
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 99¢ means the market is pricing in a 99.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,955) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($289,530) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 27¢ | $9,921,739 |
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,918,734 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 13¢ | $9,779,151 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is May 10, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a s
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-10, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 99¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 1¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 99¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 99.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,955 in total traded volume and $289,530 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.