Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethos's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Ethos after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
Reading the odds on this market
At 29.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 29.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 34 contracts that pay $33.90 if it happens; $10 on NO at 70.5¢ buys about 14.2 that pay $14.18 if it does not.
$9,640 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $16,604 still riding on the outcome, making it number 166 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 29¢ means the market is pricing in a 29.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,640) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($16,604) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 2? | 99¢ | $99,619 |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $99,475 |
| Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? | 12¢ | $97,219 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethos's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Ethos after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 457 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 29¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 70¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 29¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 29.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,640 in total traded volume and $16,604 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.