Ethereum Up or Down on October 2?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-5
Reading the odds on this market
At 78.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 78.5% chance this happens, roughly 3.7 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 13 contracts that pay $12.74 if it happens; $10 on NO at 21.5¢ buys about 46.5 that pay $46.51 if it does not.
$9,948 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $26,394 still riding on the outcome, making it number 75 by volume of the 217 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 78¢ means the market is pricing in a 78.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,948) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($26,394) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $99,475 |
| Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? | 12¢ | $97,219 |
| Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? | 16¢ | $9,995 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 1 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 2 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-5
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-02. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 78¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 21¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 78¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 78.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,948 in total traded volume and $26,394 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.