economy

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-05-31 Volume$9,644 Open Interest$53,580
YES
Implied probability: 1.7%
NO
98¢
Implied probability: 98.3%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 1¢ · High 1¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account →
YES Price
NO Price
98¢
Total Volume
$9,644
Open Interest
$53,580
Expiration
2026-05-31
Days Left
29
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any message or note written by Jeffrey Epstein, intended as a suicide note, is made publicly available by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying note must be credibly reported to have been written by Jeffrey Epstein and have been intended to be a suicide note, final message, or equivalent communication. A qualifying message or note may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. The resolution source will be a consens

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at means the market is pricing in a 1.7% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,644) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($53,580) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? 14¢ $9,697,657
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? $9,695,356
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? $9,587,827
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any message or note written by Jeffrey Epstein, intended as a suicide note, is made publicly available by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying note must be credibly reported to have been written by Jeffrey Epstein and have been intended to be a suicide note, final message, or equivalent communication. A qualifying message or note may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. The resolution source will be a consens

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-05-31, 29 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 98¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.7% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,644 in total traded volume and $53,580 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-05-02. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.