Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 25 12:00 PM ET to October 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count towar
Reading the odds on this market
At 21.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 21.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 47 contracts that pay $46.51 if it happens; $10 on NO at 78.5¢ buys about 12.7 that pay $12.74 if it does not.
$9,969 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $9,686 still riding on the outcome, making it number 55 by volume of the 199 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 21¢ means the market is pricing in a 21.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,969) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($9,686) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? | 8¢ | $9,818 |
| Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? | 3¢ | $9,802 |
| Taylor & Travis divorce in 2026? | 2¢ | $9,777 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 25 12:00 PM ET to October 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count towar
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-02, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 21¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 78¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 21¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 21.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,969 in total traded volume and $9,686 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.