Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count to
Reading the odds on this market
At 23.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 23.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 4.
$10 on YES buys about 43 contracts that pay $42.55 if it happens; $10 on NO at 76.5¢ buys about 13.1 that pay $13.07 if it does not.
$97,378 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $18,904 still riding on the outcome, making it number 21 by volume of the 204 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 23¢ means the market is pricing in a 23.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,378) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($18,904) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Taylor Brown come in third-place on Big Brother season 28? | 18¢ | $9,966 |
| Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | 1¢ | $9,961 |
| Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? | 8¢ | $9,818 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count to
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-25, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 23¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 76¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 23¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 23.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,378 in total traded volume and $18,904 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.