Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 59¢ means the market is pricing in a 59.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,939) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($10,245) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,939,743 |
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,824,857 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,763,597 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-09, 2 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 59¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 40¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 59¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 59.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,939 in total traded volume and $10,245 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.