Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 22, 12:00 PM ET and September 29, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts fo
Reading the odds on this market
At 32.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 32.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 31 contracts that pay $31.25 if it happens; $10 on NO at 68.0¢ buys about 14.7 that pay $14.71 if it does not.
$9,718 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $223 still riding on the outcome, making it number 130 by volume of the 205 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 32¢ means the market is pricing in a 32.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,718) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($223) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026? | 4¢ | $9,974 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 50 and 55 million views in week 1? | 1¢ | $9,965 |
| Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? | 8¢ | $9,818 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between September 22, 12:00 PM ET and September 29, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts fo
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-29, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 32¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 68¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 32¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 32.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,718 in total traded volume and $223 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.