Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance
Reading the odds on this market
At 43.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 43.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 2.
$10 on YES buys about 23 contracts that pay $23.26 if it happens; $10 on NO at 57.0¢ buys about 17.5 that pay $17.54 if it does not.
$9,660 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $29,289 still riding on the outcome, making it number 145 by volume of the 212 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 43¢ means the market is pricing in a 43.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,660) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($29,289) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | 8¢ | $971,239 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 15¢ | $967,839 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September? | 1¢ | $99,587 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-26, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 43¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 57¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 43¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 43.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,660 in total traded volume and $29,289 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.