Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 6?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Reading the odds on this market
At 86.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 86.0% chance this happens, roughly 6.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 12 contracts that pay $11.63 if it happens; $10 on NO at 14.0¢ buys about 71.4 that pay $71.43 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 16.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 5 days until October 6, 2026; that works out to about 6047917.8% a year.
$9,791 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $34,551 still riding on the outcome, making it number 126 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 86¢ means the market is pricing in a 86.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,791) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($34,551) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price range on Oct 1, 2026: $92,750 or above | 1¢ | $1,631 |
| Bitcoin price range on Oct 1, 2026: $73,249.99 or below | 1¢ | $1,216 |
| Bitcoin price range on Oct 1, 2026: $91,500 to 91,749.99 | 1¢ | $300 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 2? | 99¢ | $99,619 |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $99,475 |
| Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? | 12¢ | $97,219 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-06, 5 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 86¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 14¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 86¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 86.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,791 in total traded volume and $34,551 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.