Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 24¢ means the market is pricing in a 24.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,591) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($2,283) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,768,741 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 13¢ | $9,716,499 |
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,670,859 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 242 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 24¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 76¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 24¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 24.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,591 in total traded volume and $2,283 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.