Longshots · 41 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market Platform YES Volume Implied %
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Polymarket $99,913,046 3.5%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket $9,835,883 1.7%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Polymarket $982,239 5.9%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Polymarket $977,810 6.8%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Polymarket $972,321 3.2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Polymarket $971,384 4.1%
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? Polymarket $99,429 1.1%
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Polymarket $99,072 6.5%
Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP? Polymarket $98,817 1.2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Polymarket $98,809 7.5%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Polymarket $98,045 4.2%
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Polymarket $98,014 9.5%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Polymarket $97,129 1.2%
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Polymarket $96,440 2.4%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Polymarket $96,212 4.1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open? Polymarket $96,149 2.8%
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 85-86° on Jun 25, 2026: 85° to 86° Kalshi $10,317 8.0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? Polymarket $9,968 2.2%
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Polymarket $9,961 8.5%
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Polymarket $9,960 1.2%
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Polymarket $9,943 3.8%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 22-28? Polymarket $9,935 2.9%
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? Polymarket $9,911 3.5%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Polymarket $9,896 2.5%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Polymarket $9,797 1.9%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? Polymarket $9,792 4.5%
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? Polymarket $9,746 5.1%
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Polymarket $9,742 3.5%
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World C Polymarket $9,721 8.5%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Polymarket $9,713 8.0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Polymarket $9,701 2.3%
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? Polymarket $9,674 6.0%
Will New York Giants win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Polymarket $9,666 5.5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? Polymarket $9,640 2.1%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by Dece Polymarket $9,621 2.1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? Polymarket $9,616 5.5%
Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat? Polymarket $9,615 2.5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Polymarket $9,600 9.5%
Will the high temp in Chicago be <77° on Jun 25, 2026: 76° or below Kalshi $9,572 2.0%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7300 and 7324.9999 on Jun 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,300 Kalshi $1,134 7.0%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7325 and 7349.9999 on Jun 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT: 7,325 Kalshi $813 6.0%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.

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