Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 18¢ means the market is pricing in a 18.7% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,775) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($282) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $985,894 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 18¢ | $977,972 |
| Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage | 99¢ | $954,210 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-31, 17 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 18¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 81¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 18¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 18.7% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,775 in total traded volume and $282 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.