Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 5¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,841) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($13,333) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the **high temp in LA** be >73° on Jul 2, 2026: 74° or above | 1¢ | $142,114 |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 70-71° on Jul 2, 2026: 70° to 71° | 1¢ | $88,192 |
| Will the **high temp in LA** be 72-73° on Jul 2, 2026: 72° to 73° | 99¢ | $49,482 |
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | 97¢ | $998,140 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $981,875 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 20¢ | $973,281 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-08-01, 29 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 5¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 5¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,841 in total traded volume and $13,333 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.