Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad se
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 4¢ means the market is pricing in a 4.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,624) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($25,159) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 5¢ | $9,999,980 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,668,254 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 62¢ | $982,998 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad se
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-04-01, 193 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 4¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 96¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 4¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 4.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,624 in total traded volume and $25,159 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.