Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 65¢ means the market is pricing in a 65.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,553) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($17,691) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2¢ | $9,973,145 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,615,159 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 5¢ | $9,612,578 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2029-01-20, 873 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 65¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 34¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 65¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 65.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,553 in total traded volume and $17,691 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.