Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?
What resolves this contract
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline. A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 2¢ means the market is pricing in a 2.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,283) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($23,710) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >79° on Aug 31, 2026: 80° or above | 2¢ | $247,754 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 78-79° on Aug 31, 2026: 78° to 79° | 99¢ | $92,547 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° on Aug 31, 2026: 76° to 77° | 1¢ | $79,692 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline. A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-01, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 2¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 98¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 2¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 2.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,283 in total traded volume and $23,710 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.