politics

Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$9,574 Open Interest$779
YES
37¢
Implied probability: 37.0%
NO
63¢
Implied probability: 63.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 37¢ · High 37¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
37¢
NO Price
63¢
Total Volume
$9,574
Open Interest
$779
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
122
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 37¢ means the market is pricing in a 37.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,574) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($779) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 122 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 37¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 63¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 37¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 37.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,574 in total traded volume and $779 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-08-31. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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