Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qua
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 86¢ means the market is pricing in a 86.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,999) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($423) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 1¢ | $997,212 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 1¢ | $996,160 |
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $995,118 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qua
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-31. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 86¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 14¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 86¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 86.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,999 in total traded volume and $423 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.